The Calorimeter Theory
This is only considerations. It is not facts.
I don't know anything about the climate other than what I know about the physical laws as a civil engineer.
The estimates are very loose.
If the earth is considered as a calorimeter, how much will our energy consumption heat up the atmosphere?
Our energy consumption heats up the atmosphere slightly more than the global warming - maybe three times the global warming.
For comparison the heat radiation from the sun is about 10,000 times greater.
Clouds prevent radiation from returning to space.
In wintertime the temperature is easily 10o C higher during nighttime when cloudy.
Clouds also prevent radiation towards the earth.
In summertime the temperature is easily 10o C lower during daytime when cloudy.
Clouds, CO2 and other greenhouse gases prevent low temperatures on the earth but they also prevent high temperatures.
All in all they don't change the mean temperature on the earth.
They act like buffers and equalize the temperatures.
Looking at the nearest planets is a big scale experiment with greenhouse gasses.
There is a relation between the concentration of greenhouse gases and the atmospheric pressure.
The higher pressure, the higher concentration of greenhouse gases, the more equalized (not higher) temperatures.
The distance from the center of the planet has also influence on the concentration of greenhouse gases and the pressure due to gravity.
The temperature is always the same day and night when the atmosphere is saturated with greenhouse gases.
The closer to the sun, the higher basic temperature.
The temperature on the earth vary between -90o C and 57o C.
The surface pressure is about 101 hPa.
The composition of the atmosphere is about 78 % N and 21 % O2.
The distance to the sun is about 150 million km.
The temperature on the moon vary between -170o C and 125o C.
There are no atmosphere, no pressure and no composition.
The distance to the sun is about 150 million km.
The temperature on Venus is constant 462o C.
The surface pressure is constant 9.2 MPa (about 90 times the pressure on the earth).
The composition of the atmosphere is about 96 % CO2.
The distance to the sun is about 108 million km.
The temperature on Mars vary between -143o C and 35o C.
The surface pressure is about 0,6 hPa (0,006 times the earths).
The composition of the atmosphere is about 96 % CO2
(96 % CO2 and no global warming).
The distance to the sun is about 207 million km.
The inside of Jupiter is uncertain.
Jupiter consists of gas and it might not have a surface.
The temperature depends on the pressure, which depends of the distance from the center.
The temperature is constant -110o C at a pressure of 100 hPa (same as the pressure on the earth).
The temperature is constant -160o C at a pressure of 10 hPa (one tenth of the earths).
The composition of the atmosphere is about 90 % H2 and 10 % He.
The distance to the sun is about 780 million km.
Ice cools the temperature in a calorimeter.
Ice uses energy to melt and ice lowers the temperature.
There is way more ice on the earth than our energy consumption is able to melt.
It will take under 1 % of all the ice on the earth to cover up for all fossil fuels both in the past and in the future.
Melting ice is a slow process and the heat has to move to the poles before it can melt any ice.
Making the heat is much quicker than melting ice.
Some of the energy also heats up the ground and the oceans.
Antarctic contains 26,5 million km3 ice.
Arctic and Greenland contain about 2,6 million km3 ice.
The glaciers and mountain tops contain under 1 % of the ice on the earth.
It looks like the radiation from the sun is decreasing at the moment.
The temperatures on the earth would actually be higher, if this wasn't the case.
This gives a blurred picture with both heat and cold records.
There are different kinds of heat.
Concerning the global warming there are two kinds of heat - heat radiation and kinetic heat in molecules.
The heat from the sun is radiation and the heat from fossil fuels is kinetic.
The two kinds of heat have different properties.
Heat radiation can for example pass though areas without heat without changing.
Kinetic heat tries to spread and equalize the temperatures with the surroundings.
Heat radiation is a kind of electromagnetic radiation.
When the source stops and the radiation leaves, the heat stops.
Kinetic heat is related to kinetic energy in molecules.
When the energy source stops, the kinetic heat stays in the matter afterwards.
Heat radiation can leave into empty space.
Kinetic heat is related to molecules and it can only exist in an atmosphere.
Kinetic heat can't leave the earth.
Greenhouse gases have influence on the heat radiation.
Greenhouse gases shadow or stop the radiation - both from and to the earth.
Greenhouse gases bring a time aspect into the heat radiation from the sun.
The heat radiation stops when the sun sets and it disappears quite quickly back into space.
Greenhouse gases prevent the disappearance of the heat radiation back into space.
They make the heat radiation stay in the atmosphere longer time even after the sun has set.
But when the sun is up greenhouse gases also prevent heat radiation towards the earth.
They make the old heat radiation stay in the atmosphere longer time and at the same time they prevent new heat radiation towards the earth.
So the amounts of heat radiation to and from the earth are the same.
Ice in a calorimeter is related the kinetic heat.
When ice melts it takes out some of the kinetic heat.
Global warming is related to kinetic heat.
It stays in the atmosphere even after the heat production has stopped.
The distinction between heat radiation and kinetic heat is blurred.
If a metal solid for example is warmed up, it first exchanges kinetic heat with the surroundings.
When it is very hot, it starts to glow and exchanges heat as radiation.
When radiation hits mass, some of it makes heat and some of it is reflected.
The reflection (albedo) depends on many things, for example structure, shape and color of the surface of the mass.
Like greenhouse gases the albedo has a significant influence on heat radiation.
When radiation hits a gas, the concentration of the gas has influence on the heat and the albedo from the gas too.
When radiation hits a gas, the gas stops some of the radiation and
things behind the gas don't get as much radiation as they would have without the gas.
So all put together the radiation is the same; some of the heat is just present in the gas instead of the things behind.
Nuclear power causes global warming too.
Before we can use the energy from nuclear power, it is transformed into heat.
There are enough atomic fuels to raise the temperature on the earth to over 100 degrees.
Fossil fuels cause global warming but the amounts of fossil fuels are limited.
Because the amounts of fossil fuels are limited, they are no thread to mankind.
But fossil fuels cause pollution.
The pollution from fossil fuels could be compared with plastic in the oceans.
The heat causes drought, storms and heavy rainfalls and that isn't good either.
The sooner we avoid using fossil fuels the better but we still can use some of them wisely.
Coal is the largest occurence of fossil fuels.
We have the technology to replace coal and we should stop using coal as soon as possible.
Gas doesn't pollute as much as coal but we also have the technology to replace gas
so we might as well stop using gas as soon as possible too.
It is more difficult with oil.
Oil is used for transportaition.
We have electric cars which function well so use of oil to cars should be replaced as soon as possible.
Larger vehicles, ships and aviation have more problems using electricity.
So my suggestion is that we stop use of coal and gas as soon as possible,
we still use oil but only for transportation with larger vehicles, ships and aviation.
We still develop use of electricity so one day all transportation can be done electrically.
In old time we used the wind to transportation at sea.
If we stop using fossil fuels except oil for transportation, the global temperature would raise estimated maybe 0.6 - 0.7 degree in the future,
which might be acceptable.
There is a lot of waste energy in energy production with fossil fuels.
A petrol car uses only 10 % of the energy to move.
The rest 90 % is wasted into heat, which dissapears into the environment.
An electric car uses all the energy to move.
It only heats if the driver manually turns on the heat in the cabin to make it more comfortable to drive.
So our energy production heats up the envoronment a lot more the our energy consumption.
We always hear that aviation is a big cause of global warming
but there is not much difference between cars and planes.
A petrol car driving one person from Copenhagen to Paris is cause of more global warming than the same air transportation.
If there are two persons in the car, it makes about the same global warming as if they were flying.
There has to be three or more persons in the car to make less global warming than air transportation.
Trains and electric cars cause much less global warming.
Long distance aviation causes slightly more global warming than short distance aviation.
And if one person flies from Copenhagen to Australia and back, he maybe travels as much km in one trip as a normal car drives in a whole year.
Windmills transform the energy in the wind to electricity without making heat.
Solar panels tranform the radiation from the sun to electricity without making heat.
Animal production has no influence on the global warming after this theory.
We have used about 40 % of all the oil on the earth so far.
We have used about 20 % of all the coal on the earth so far.
We have used about 35 % of all the gas on the earth so far.
Totally we have used about 28 % of all the fossil fuels on the earth so far measured on energy.
The global warming is about 1.1o C at the moment.
The global sea level has risen about 23 cm due to the global warming.
Half is due to water expansion when it gets warmer and the rest is due to melting ice.
The sea level will rise estimated a little over a meter after burning up all the fossil fuels on the earth.
The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere at present time is about 400 ppm.
The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere before the global warming was about 280 ppm.
The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere after burning up all the fossil fuels on earth estimated 800 ppm.
The global temperature at present time is about 15o C.
The global temperature before the global warming was about 14o C.
The global temperature after burning up all the fossil fuels on earth estimated 20o C.
In earlier ages the amount of CO2 and the global temperature were much higher.
The average amount of CO2 in the atmosphere the last 600 million years has been around 2000 ppm
with maximum over 6000 ppm.
The average global temperature the last 600 million years has been around 20o C
with maximum over 23o C.
No tipping point has occurred so far
and burning up all the fossil fuels on earth is still not enough to reach earlier ages temperatures and amounts of CO2.
600 million years.
The earth is about 4.5 ∙ 109 years old.
The oldest DNA from life found is about 3.8 ∙ 109 years old
but there are signs of life before that.
The dinosaurs came about 300 million years ago and they extinct 66 million years ago.
Before 600 million years ago there was much more CO2.
100o C could be a crusual point.
All the water on the earth turning into steam must have a significant influence on the climate.
The melting point of CO2 is about -57o degrees C.
In areas with temperature under -57o C CO2 turns into solid matter.
-57o C could be a crusual point too.
Global warming in the media.
The global warming is a fact but the media are overcovering the climate disasters at the moment.
Every time there is a little trouble, the media are there and they blow it up.
If they had taken the same approach in for example the seventies or eighties, the result would have been the same.
Where I have lived in Denmark, I can't tell the differense between the weather in the eighties and now.
Looking at statistics gives a better picture.
There are slightly more hurricanes and typhoons now but not much.
The worse storm in Denmark is still the storm in 1999 even after 20 years with increasing global warming.
The worse hurricane year in USA is still 2005 even after 14 years with increasing global warming.
The strongest typhoon ever was Haiyan to hit the Phillipines in 2013.
1967 was the year with most cyclones with tropical storm intensity or higher in Japan according to Tokyo Typhoon Center.
I try to look at data; not reports written by a person, who can colour the report.
The biodiversity increases with heat and CO2.
The warmest areas on the earth with rain are also the areas with the highest biodiversity.
The global warming has nothing to do with the decreasing biodiversity.
Expanding cities, constructing roads and converting wild natural areas into agriculture are decreasing the biodiversity.
CO2 and plastic in the oceans aren't good for the biodiversity either.
The earth can be considered as a calorimeter but it is more complex.
There are other smaller systems (deserts, rainforests, oceans etc) within the system.
If there is ice in the water in a calorimeter,
the water is accepted as 0o C.
This is not the case on the earth
where there are open connections between the iced waters on the poles and the warm waters near equator.
The heat and CO2 follow each other and they follow the wind.
Most of our energy production is on the northern hemisphere.
It creates global warming despite the radiation from the sun actually is decreasing at the moment.
The heat passes the north pole, melts some ice and cools down a bit.
Our energy production is much smaller on the southern hemisphere
and the amount of ice on the south pole is not changing much.
The wind in the Pacific Ocean normally blows warm water towards Australia and Southeast Asia.
Sometimes this changes and the warm water flows back towards South America.
This is called El Nino and it has a significant influence on the global temperature.
North Atlantic Oscillations - NAO.
There is a permanent low pressure in the Northeast Atlantic ocean over Iceland
and a permanent high pressure in the Atlantic ocean outside the coast of North Africa.
The strengths of these pressures have a significant influence on the weather and temperatures in Europe and Arctic.
All the oceans are connected both north-south and east-west by ocean currents which can be both cold or warm.
Vulcanos and plate tectonics have a significant influence of the global warming too.
Arguments for this theory.
The global warming is proportional with both CO2 and our energy consumption.
The global warming is accumulated.
It has increased slowly over the last nearly 200 years.
The behavior of the global warming points more in the direction of a calorimeter than prevention of radiation back to space.
Our energy consumption both heats up the atmosphere and produces CO2.
The CO2 theory neglects the heat from our energy consumption and says
that CO2 prevents radiation back into space
so the atmosphere heats up with the same amount of heat which was neglected in the first place.
This doesn't seem likely.
If we can transform the kinetic heat from the fossil fuels into radiation heat, the heat might leave the earth through space.
The heat capacity of the atmosphere :
The mass of the atmosphere : 5.2 ∙ 1018 kg
The specific heat capacity of air : 1010 J / (kg ∙ K)
The heat capacity of the atmosphere : 1010 ∙ 5.2 ∙ 1018 = 5.25 ∙ 1021 J / K
Our energy consumption :
Earth energy consumption 2015 (source : wikipedia) : 168,519 TWh = 6.067 ∙ 1020 J
The heat capacity of the atmosphere (see above) : 5.25 ∙ 1021 J / K
The increase of temperature per year (2015) is 6.067 ∙ 1020 / 5.25 ∙ 1021 = 0.12 K
The temperature will rise 1o C every 8.7 year.
The resources of fossil fuels are limited.
Fossil fuel consumption through time so far (2019) :
Oil consumption so far : 2180000 TWh = 7.85 ∙ 1021 J
Coal consumption so far : 2260000 TWh = 8.13 ∙ 1021 J
Gas consumption so far : 1170000 TWh = 4.20 ∙ 1021 J
Total consumption so far : (0.785 + 0.813 + 0.420) ∙ 1022 = 2.018 ∙ 1022 J
We have used 2.018 ∙ 1022 J so far but our energy consumption has only been 6.067 ∙ 1020 J.
There is a factor 32 difference which could be waste energy.
As mentioned before a petrol car uses only 10 % of the energy to drive.
The rest waste energy heats up the atmosphere.
These estimations are also very loose.
We have used 2.018 ∙ 1022 J so far incl waste energy.
The temperature should have increased by 3.8 o so far.
The global warming is about 1.1 o at the moment.
The melting ice on the north pole might have a greater influence on the global warming than presumed until now.
Fossil fuel resources left on the earth (2019) :
Oil resources left : 1646 billions bbl oil = 1.16 ∙ 1022 J
Coal resources left : 1.136 ∙ 1012 ton = 3.41 ∙ 1022 J
Gas resources left : 7000 Tcf = 7.84 ∙ 1021 J
Total resources of fossil fuels left : (1.16 + 3.41 + 0.784) ∙ 1022 = 5.354 ∙ 1022 J
Total amount of fossil fuels both in the past and in the future :
Oil : (0.785 + 1.16) ∙ 1022 = 1.945 ∙ 1022 J
Coal : (0.813 + 3.41) ∙ 1022 = 4.223 ∙ 1022 J
Gas : (0.42 + 0.784) ∙ 1022 = 1.204 ∙ 1022 J
Total amount of fossil fuels : (1.945 + 4.223 + 1.204) ∙ 1022 = 7.372 ∙ 1022 J
The temperature would increase about 14 o all in all if all the fossil fuels both in the past and in the future were burnt off
and no ice was melting.
Total amount of fossil fuels both in the past and in the future : 7.372 ∙ 1022 J
Ice uses 334 kJ to melt 1 kg
Total amount of ice to recover all fossil fuels both in the past and in the future :
7.372 ∙ 1022 / (334 ∙ 103) = 2.2 ∙ 1017 kg ∼ 2.3 ∙ 105 km3
Ice totally on earth at present time : 29 ∙ 106 km3
All the fossil fuels both in the past and in the future will melt about 0.8 % of all the ice on the earth.
Then the temperature will be back to normal
but there are uncertainties by putting it all so simple.