The Calorimeter Theory
This is only considerations. It is not facts.
I don't know anything about the climate other than what I know about the laws of physics as a civil engineer.
The estimates are very loose.
If the earth is considered as a calorimeter, how much has our energy consumption heated up the atmosphere?
Our energy consumption has heated up the atmosphere about five times the global warming.
For comparison the heat radiation from the sun is about 10,000 times greater.
Clouds prevent radiation from returning to space.
In wintertime the temperature is easily 10o C higher during nighttime when cloudy.
Clouds also prevent radiation towards the earth.
In summertime the temperature is easily 10o C lower during daytime when cloudy.
Clouds, CO2 and other greenhouse gases prevent low temperatures on the earth but they also prevent high temperatures.
All in all they don't change the mean temperature on the earth.
They act like buffers and equalize the temperatures.
Looking at the nearest planets is a big scale experiment with greenhouse gasses.
There is a relation between the concentration of greenhouse gases and the atmospheric pressure.
The higher pressure, the higher concentration of greenhouse gases, the more equalized (not higher) temperatures.
The distance from the center of the planet has also influence on the concentration of greenhouse gases and the pressure due to gravity.
The temperature is always the same day and night when the atmosphere is saturated with greenhouse gases.
The closer to the sun, the higher basic temperature.
The temperature on the earth vary between -90o C and 57o C.
The surface pressure is about 101 hPa.
The composition of the atmosphere is about 78 % N and 21 % O2.
The distance to the sun is about 150 million km.
The temperature on the moon vary between -170o C and 125o C.
There are no atmosphere, no pressure and no composition.
The distance to the sun is about 150 million km.
The temperature on Venus is constant 462o C.
The surface pressure is constant 9.2 MPa (about 90 times the pressure on the earth).
The composition of the atmosphere is about 96 % CO2.
The distance to the sun is about 108 million km.
The temperature on Mars vary between -143o C and 35o C.
The surface pressure is about 0,6 hPa (0,006 times the earths).
The composition of the atmosphere is about 96 % CO2.
The surface pressure on Mars is very low but because CO2 is a more active greenhouse gas than water vapor,
the temperature is quite equalized here.
The distance to the sun is about 207 million km.
The inside of Jupiter is uncertain.
Jupiter consists of gas and it might not have a surface.
The temperature depends on the pressure which depends of the distance from the center.
The temperature is constant -110o C at a pressure of 100 hPa (same as the pressure on the earth).
The temperature is constant -160o C at a pressure of 10 hPa (one tenth of the earths).
The composition of the atmosphere is about 90 % H2 and 10 % He.
The distance to the sun is about 780 million km.
About greenhouse effect.
The sun emits electromagnetic radiation with many frequencies.
The spectrum and power of the electromagnetic radiation from the sun
match closely the spectrum and power of a black body with the temperature 5800 K.
The power is much less when it reaches the earth but the composition of frequencies are the same.
There are two theories about the absorption and re-emission of the electromagnetic radiation from the sun.
The electromagnetic radiation could be absorped by the earth and then re-emitted matching a black body with a temperature about 300 K.
The CO2 theory says so.
The theory about absorption and emission of electromagnetic radiation says, that only certain frequencies are absorped by a matter,
depending on the composition of the matter.
After some time the matter re-emits the electromagnetic radiation with the same frequency as it came with.
After this theory the frequencies of the re-emission match the frequencies of the radiation from the sun.
Absorption brings a warming and time element into the radiation
because the radiation heats up the ground until it is re-emitted after some time.
Some of the radiation is not absorped but reflected.
The reflection (albedo) depends on many things, for example structure, shape and color of the surface.
The reflected radiation has the same frequencies as the incomming radiation.
Some of the radiation is absorped by the atmosphere of the earth on the way down to earth
and some of the radiation is immediately reflected back to space by the atmosphere.
So the power of the radiation that hits the earth is smaller than the radiation that hits the atmosphere
and so the atmosphere has a cooling influence on the earth.
The concentration of greenhouse gases has influence on the absorption and the reflection from the atmosphere.
The radiation that makes it through the atmosphere and reaches the earth is reflected or absorped and then re-emitted after some time.
The radiation from the earth is absorped again by the atmosphere on the way back to space
and this absorption makes the radiation stay longer time on the earth and has a warming influence on the earth.
CO2 , methane and other greenhouse gases might influence the atmosphere by other factors than water vapor but they are all cooling and warming at the same time.
Why are the poles getting so warm?
Water vapor freezes out of the sky here, so the greenhouse effect can't be great here.
There isn't much water vapor here because water freezes,
but CO2's boiling point is 217 K, so CO2 might exist in areas without water vapor.
Alternatively the warming on the poles is caused by internal energy spread by convection.
Ice cools the temperature in a calorimeter.
Ice uses energy to melt and ice lowers the temperature.
There is way more ice on the earth than our energy consumption is able to melt.
It will take under 1 % of all the ice on the earth to cover up for all fossil fuels both in the past and in the future.
Melting ice is a slow process and the warming has to move to the poles before it can melt any ice.
Making the warming is much quicker than melting ice.
We have used about 36 % of all fossil fuels on the earth (1-1-2020) measured on energy.
Antarctic contains 25-30 million km3 ice (90 % of all the ice on the earth) and covers an area of 14 million km2.
Antarctic had a small increase of sea-ice until 2013.
The ice cap of Antarctic has a small decrease at the borderline and a small increase in the middle.
Totally it has lost about 5,000 km3 or about 0.02 %.
The ice cap on Greenland contains 2,5-2,9 million km3 and covers an area of about 1.7 million km2.
The ice cap on Greenland has lost about 6,000 km2 ice or about 0.2 %.
The sea ice in Arctic changes during the seasons.
In winter time it is about double size compared to summer.
The permanent ice is about 3-4 m thick while the 1 year ice is about 1 m.
The smallest summer area is about 3.5 million km2 which is about 14,000 km3 ice.
The largest winter area was about 12,000 km2 in 2010 which is about 22,500 km3 ice.
The sea ice has decreased with about 3 million km2 which is about 3,000 km3 ice or 13-22 % depending on the season.
The sea ice on Arctic is about 0.1 % of the total amount of ice on the earth
but the decrease of ice here is almost the same size as the large ice caps.
But it is unfortunate because it is here the melting has the greatest consequences for, for example, wildlife.
The amount of ice on mountain tops and their glaciers is about 1 % of the total amount of ice on the earth.
The melting of ice here is significant too and this is also a place where it is very unfortunate because of wildlife among other things.
These numbers vary both after the sources and after the seasons.
Some of the energy also heats up the ground and the oceans.
If the Pacific Ocean absorped the energy from all fossil fuels both in the past and in the future,
the temperature here would increase about 0,02 degree.
Nuclear power causes global warming too.
Before we can use the energy from nuclear power, it is transformed into internal energy.
There are enough atomic fuels to raise the temperature on the earth to over 100o C.
Windmills transform the energy in the wind to electricity without making heat.
Solar panels tranform the radiation from the sun to electricity without making heat.
Biofuels and making heat by burning wood increase the global warming.
Animal production has no influence on the global warming after this theory.
This theory makes a new concept : heat pollution.
It is as damaging as plastic in the oceans and CO2.
Heat pumps make heat by making another place cooler.
One of the fundamental laws of physics is the law of energy conservation.
The atmosphere is supplied with energy from the burning of fossil fuels and thermal radiation from the sun.
The atmosphere loses energy by melting ice and re-emitting thermal radiation back into space.
This results in an increase of the temperature on the earth with a little over 1o C.
If they all are added together, the thermal radiation from the sun and the thermal radiation back into space are approximately equal
and have always been so - CO2 or not.
Temperature is related to internal energy.
Heat causes change in the internal energy and there are different kinds of heat.
Concerning the global warming there are two kinds of heat - thermal radiation and combustion.
The heat from the sun is radiation and the heat from fossil fuels is combustion.
The two kinds of heat have different properties.
Thermal radiation can for example pass though areas without internal energy without changing.
Combustion changes the kinetic energy of the molecules and can only exist in an atmosphere.
Thermal radiation is a kind of electromagnetic radiation.
When the source stops, the radiation leaves.
Combustion is related to kinetic energy in molecules.
When the energy source stops, the kinetic energy stays in the system afterwards.
Thermal radiation can leave into empty space.
Combustion is related to molecules and can only exist in an atmosphere.
Combustion can't leave the earth.
Greenhouse gases have influence on the thermal radiation.
Greenhouse gases shadow or stop the radiation - both from and to the earth.
Greenhouse gases bring a time aspect into the thermal radiation from the sun.
The thermal radiation stops when the sun sets and the radiation disappears quite quickly back into space.
Greenhouse gases prevent the disappearance of the thermal radiation back into space.
They make the thermal radiation stay in the atmosphere longer time even after the sun has set.
But when the sun is up greenhouse gases also prevent thermal radiation towards the earth.
They make the old thermal radiation stay in the atmosphere longer time and at the same time they prevent new thermal radiation towards the earth.
So the amounts of thermal radiation to and from the earth are the same.
Ice in a calorimeter is related to internal energy.
Melting ice (changing of phase) is a kind of heat which takes out some of the internal energy.
Global warming is related to internal energy.
It stays in the atmosphere even after the energy production has stopped.
The distinction between thermal radiation and other kinds of heat is blurred.
If a metal solid for example is warmed up, it first exchanges kinetic energy with the surroundings.
When it is very hot, it starts to glow and exchanges energy as radiation.
We have used about 50 % of all the oil on the earth so far.
We have used about 28 % of all the coal on the earth so far.
We have used about 39 % of all the gas on the earth so far.
Totally we have used about 36 % of all the fossil fuels on the earth so far measured on energy.
The global warming is about 1.1o C at the moment.
The global sea level has risen about 23 cm due to the global warming.
Half is due to water expansion when it gets warmer and the rest is due to melting ice.
Fossil fuels cause global warming but the amounts of fossil fuels are limited.
Because the amounts of fossil fuels are limited, they are no thread to mankind.
But fossil fuels cause pollution.
The pollution from fossil fuels could be compared with plastic in the oceans.
The increased temperature causes drought, storms and heavy rainfalls and that isn't good either.
The sooner we avoid using fossil fuels the better but we still can use some of them wisely.
Coal is the largest occurence of fossil fuels and the most pollutant.
We have the technology to replace coal and we should stop using coal as soon as possible.
Gas doesn't pollute as much as coal but we also have the technology to replace gas
so we might as well stop using gas as soon as possible too.
It is more difficult with oil.
Oil is used for transportaition.
We have electric cars which function well so use of oil to cars should be replaced as soon as possible.
Larger vehicles, ships and aviation have more problems using electricity.
So my suggestion is that we stop use of coal and gas as soon as possible,
we still use oil but only for transportation with larger vehicles, ships and aviation.
We still develop use of electricity so one day all transportation can be done electrically.
In old time we used the wind to transportation at sea.
If we stop using fossil fuels except oil for transportation, the global temperature would raise estimated maybe 0.6 - 0.7o C in the future,
which might be acceptable.
There is a lot of waste energy in energy production with fossil fuels.
A petrol car uses only 10 % of the energy to move.
The rest 90 % is waste energy, which is heat that heats up the atmosphere.
An electric car uses all the energy to move.
It only heats if the driver manually turns on the heat in the cabin to make it more comfortable to drive.
So our energy production heats up the envoronment a lot more than our energy consumption.
The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere at present time is about 400 ppm.
The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere before the global warming was about 280 ppm.
The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere after burning up all the fossil fuels on earth estimated 800 ppm.
The global temperature at present time is about 15o C.
The global temperature before the global warming was about 14o C.
The global temperature after burning up all the fossil fuels on earth estimated 19o C.
In earlier ages the amount of CO2 and the global temperature were much higher.
The average amount of CO2 in the atmosphere the last 600 million years has been around 2000 ppm
with maximum over 6000 ppm.
The average global temperature the last 600 million years has been around 20o C
with maximum over 23o C.
No tipping point has occurred so far
and burning up all the fossil fuels on earth is still not enough to reach earlier ages temperatures and amounts of CO2.
600 million years.
The earth is about 4.5 ∙ 109 years old.
The oldest DNA from life found is about 3.8 ∙ 109 years old
but there are signs of life before that.
The dinosaurs came about 300 million years ago and they extinct 66 million years ago.
Before 600 million years ago there was much more CO2.
100o C could be a crusual point.
All the water on the earth turning into steam must have a significant influence on the climate.
The melting point of CO2 is about -57o C.
In areas with temperature under -57o C CO2 turns into solid matter.
-57o C could be a crusual point too.
By extrapolating, the global temperature maybe could increase by 3-4o C until the fossil fuels are burnt off.
It will be warmer on the earth in a period.
Then some ice - under 1 % of the total amount of ice on the earth - melts and brings the temperature back to normal.
Maybe the temperature could be back to normal in the beginning of the 22 century
even though we use all the fossil fuels on the earth but provided that we don't make other kinds of heat.
The sooner we stop making heat,
the sooner the temperature will be back to normal and the more of the original earth (ice and wildlife on Arctic) is kept.
Nuclear power and biofuels are not included in this calculation though.
They might be as damaging as fossil fuels.
If we can transform the internal energy from the fossil fuels into thermal radiation, the global warming maybe could leave the earth through space.
We always hear that aviation is a big cause of CO2
but there is not much difference between cars and planes.
A petrol car driving one person from Copenhagen to Paris is cause of more CO2 than the same air transportation.
If there are two persons in the car, it makes about the same amount of CO2 as if they were flying.
There has to be three or more persons in the car to make less CO2 than air transportation.
Trains and electric cars cause much less CO2.
Long distance aviation causes slightly more CO2 than short distance aviation.
And if one person flies from Copenhagen to Australia and back, he maybe travels as much km in one trip as a normal car drives in a whole year.
Global warming in the media.
The global warming is a fact but the media are overcovering the climate disasters at the moment.
Every time there is a little trouble, the media are there and they blow it up.
If they had taken the same approach in for example the seventies or eighties, the result would have been about the same.
Where I have lived in Denmark, I can't tell the differense between the weather in the eighties and now.
There might be a small increase in temperature but I can't tell the difference when it comes to rain and wind.
Looking at statistics gives the same picture.
There are slightly more hurricanes and typhoons now but not much.
The worse storm in Denmark is still the storm in 1999 even after 20 years with increasing global warming.
The worse hurricane year in USA is still 2005 even after 14 years with increasing global warming.
The strongest typhoon ever was Haiyan to hit the Phillipines in 2013.
1967 was the year with most cyclones with tropical storm intensity or higher in Japan according to Tokyo Typhoon Center.
I try to look at data; not reports written by a person, who can colour the report.
The biodiversity increases with warming.
The warmest areas on the earth with rain are also the areas with the highest biodiversity.
The global warming has nothing to do with the decreasing biodiversity.
Flora and fauna might change places a bit for example it might be possible to grow new plants on certain places.
Expanding cities, constructing roads and converting wild natural areas into agriculture are decreasing the biodiversity.
CO2 (as pollution) and plastic in the oceans aren't good for the biodiversity either.
The earth can be considered as a calorimeter but it is more complexed.
There are other smaller systems (deserts, rainforests, oceans etc) within the system.
If there is ice in the water in a calorimeter,
the water is accepted as 0o C.
This is not the case on the earth
where there are open connections between the iced waters on the poles and the warm waters near equator.
The heat and CO2 follow each other and they follow the wind.
Most of our energy production is on the northern hemisphere.
The warming passes the north pole, melts some ice and cools down a bit.
I saw some maps showing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Then concentration was higher on the northern hemisphere.
That could cause that the global warming was higher on the northern hemisphere
but actually the global warming is the same in Australia.
The amount of ice on the south pole is not changing much though.
The wind in the Pacific Ocean normally blows warm water towards Australia and Southeast Asia.
Sometimes this changes and the warm water flows back towards South America.
This is called El Nino and it has a significant influence on the global temperature.
North Atlantic Oscillations - NAO.
There is a permanent low pressure in the Northeast Atlantic ocean over Iceland
and a permanent high pressure in the Atlantic ocean outside the coast of North Africa.
The strengths of these pressures have a significant influence on the weather and temperatures in Europe and Arctic.
All the oceans are connected both north-south and east-west by ocean currents which can be both cold or warm.
Vulcanos and plate tectonics have a significant influence on the global warming too.
Arguments for this theory.
The global warming is proportional with both CO2 and our energy consumption.
The global warming is accumulated.
It has increased slowly over the last nearly 200 years.
The behavior of the global warming points more in the direction of a calorimeter than prevention of radiation back to space.
Our energy consumption both heats up the atmosphere and produces smoke.
The CO2 theory neglects the heat from our energy consumption and says
that the smoke prevents radiation back into space
so the atmosphere heats up with the same amount of heat which was neglected in the first place.
This doesn't seem likely.
The heat capacity of the atmosphere :
The mass of the atmosphere : 5.2 ∙ 1018 kg
The specific heat capacity of air : 1010 J / (kg ∙ K)
The heat capacity of the atmosphere : 1010 ∙ 5.2 ∙ 1018 = 5.25 ∙ 1021 J / K
Our energy consumption :
Earth energy consumption 2015 (source : wikipedia) : 168,519 TWh = 6.067 ∙ 1020 J
The heat capacity of the atmosphere (see above) : 5.25 ∙ 1021 J / K
The increase of temperature per year (2015) is 6.067 ∙ 1020 / 5.25 ∙ 1021 = 0.12 K
The temperature will rise 1o C every 8.7 year.
The resources of fossil fuels are limited.
Fossil fuel consumption through time so far (2019) :
Oil : 10 ∙ 1021 J
Coal : 12.2 ∙ 1021 J
Gas : 4.12 ∙ 1021 J
Total consumption so far : (1.0 + 1.22 + 0.41) ∙ 1022 = 2.63 ∙ 1022 J
We have used 2.63 ∙ 1022 J (2019) so far but our energy consumption has only been 6.067 ∙ 1020 J (2015).
There is a factor 32 difference which could be waste energy.
As mentioned before a petrol car uses only 10 % of the energy to drive.
The rest waste energy heats up the atmosphere.
These estimations are also very loose.
We have used 2.63 ∙ 1022 J so far incl waste energy.
The temperature should have increased by 5.2o so far.
The global warming is about 1.1o at the moment.
The melting ice on the north pole might have a greater influence on the global warming than presumed until now.
Fossil fuel resources left on the earth (2019) :
Oil : 0.99 ∙ 1022 J
Coal : 3.07 ∙ 1022 J
Gas : 7.3 ∙ 1021 J
Total resources of fossil fuels left : (0.99 + 3.07 + 0.73) ∙ 1022 = 4.79 ∙ 1022 J
Total amount of fossil fuels both in the past and in the future :
Oil : (1.0 + 0.99) ∙ 1022 = 1.99 ∙ 1022 J
Coal : (1.22 + 3.07) ∙ 1022 = 4.29 ∙ 1022 J
Gas : (0.41 + 0.73) ∙ 1022 = 1.14 ∙ 1022 J
Total amount of fossil fuels : (1.99 + 4.29 + 1.14) ∙ 1022 = 7.42 ∙ 1022 J
The temperature will increase about 14o all in all if all the fossil fuels both in the past and in the future are burnt off
and no ice is melting.
This number is significantly higher if nuclear and biofuels are included.
Total amount of fossil fuels both in the past and in the future : 7.42 ∙ 1022 J
Ice uses 334 kJ to melt 1 kg
Total amount of ice to recover all fossil fuels both in the past and in the future :
7.42 ∙ 1022 / (334 ∙ 103) = 2.2 ∙ 1017 kg ∼ 2.3 ∙ 105 km3
Ice totally on the earth at present time : 29 ∙ 106 km3
All the fossil fuels both in the past and in the future will melt about 0.8 % of all the ice on the earth.
Then the temperature will be back to normal.
We consume about 4 ∙ 109 tons oil pr year (2019) = 30 ∙ 109 bbl
Oil left on earth 1646 ∙ 109 bbl
Oil runs out in 55 years
We consume about 7.7 ∙ 109 tons coal pr year (2018)
Coal left on earth 1.136 ∙ 1012 tons
Coal runs out in 147 years
We consume about 4 ∙ 1012 m3 gas pr year (2018)
Gas left on earth 7 ∙ 1015 ft3 = 2 ∙ 1014 m3
Gas runs out in 50 years
We consume about 4 ∙ 109 tons oil pr year (2019) = 167 ∙ 1018 J
We consume about 7.7 ∙ 109 tons coal pr year (2018) = 226 ∙ 1018 J
We consume about 4 ∙ 1012 m3 gas pr year (2018) = 154 ∙ 1018 J
Fossil fuels totally consumed pr year at the moment : 547 ∙ 1018 J
Heat capacity of the atmosphere : 5.25 ∙ 1021 J/K
The global warming increases 0.1 K pr year due to fossil fuels at the moment.